Even very simple animals have evolved very clever solutions to the problem of how to meet competing needs. The strategy is called prioritization of drives. It requires the animal to detect both the internal state (fed vs hungry, safe vs fearful, mated vs virgin, etc) and the external state (presence of food, predator, mate, competitor, etc). Essentially, all behavior choices are an option (eat, flee, or mate) and the computation between the internal and external states leads to the "release" of the best option given the totality of the circumstances. In other words, all the behaviors are held in check by an inhibitory central brain, or brain-like center, until the proper combination of information is received to relieve the inhibition of the optimal behavior. Thus the sight of food combined with an empty stomach should be sufficient to release the behavior of acquiring and consuming the food. This type of system is clever, because animals, including humans, just aren't capable of executing more than one behavior at a time. So the strongest drive is satisfied first. You might think the strongest drive would always be to mate, but in many cases initiating a mating behavior sequence would be a poor choice (It seems like birds and bugs have this figured out, but some humans are still learning) For instance, many animals do a flashy courting ritual that by design is loud and showy in order to attract and entice the female. Such a series of behaviors could also attract competitors, or worse, predators. Females are choosy and more options reduce the chances of mating success of any one male. Plus a dead animal sure isn't passing on any genes. The bottom line is you have to match up internal needs with external circumstances before making the optimal decision. Applied to fantasy football, it means you need to know when the best time to draft a certain player is. The internal state is your roster. The external circumstances are your league format and scoring rules, available players, and every other guy's roster. The trouble is that the human brain is a lot more flexible and provides you with a lot more options than say, the brain of a praying mantis (the species where much of the above research was done), who would clearly just choose to play fantasy baseball.
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| Courtesy of BaseballOutsider: September 2011 |
The league I care most about, play for the most money, and have played in the longest, is a competitive 12 team, 2QB, PPR league. It technically starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2 flex (where one is a Q/R/W/T), and all TDs are worth 6 pts. So it's essentially a 2QB league but there's one guy that wants the flexibility of not using a second QB. Go figure. Now, there are a lot of draft strategies out there to choose from on your draft day, right? But this particular league is always nuts and really hard to game plan for. So I'm going to try to apply prioritization of drives theory this year. I'm vowing to be extra sensitive to internal team needs and external factors. In the past I've been flustered when my strategies seemingly fly out the window during this face-to-face draft. Not everyone comes with a strategy, and there's always one or two guys with a magazine list from July. Not everyone appreciates the scoring system of this league (I mean they know it, they just don't translate it to player value), so it's hard to predict which players will be off the board in any given round. Therefore, when nonsensical things have been going on around me I've done nonsensical things too. I once succumbed, stupidly, to a run on mediocre TEs in the 5th round after the elite guys were gone. This is the kind of "option" your brain will provide that you need to inhibit.
Just like you can't make love and dinner at the same time without sacrificing one of the two, you have to know your team needs and take care of them in order. You're not getting a top 5 QB and a top 5 RB here. Given the scoring in my league, my priority is QB. I want two of the top 12 QBs in the first two rounds and a backup in the 8th-9th. In a standard league, I'd lean heavily toward a dual threat QB, to gain the rushing yards and rTD points, but in this particular league I'm leaning more toward safety. I know what the waiver wire looks like in October, so if my #1 or 2 guy goes down early in the year I'm hanging my hat on the likes of my QB3--a Brandon Weeden or Carson Palmer, if I'm lucky, and I'm screwed during bye weeks. Therefore I'm looking more at the Matt Ryan/Tony Romo type as my QB2. I really hope some of my leaguemates are buying into the GREAT RB SHORTAGE of 2013 so that this is a viable strategy. I'd like to go with a quality WR or TE like Witten in the 3rd. Calvin, Jimmy Graham, and Dez will be gone, probably along with AJ Green and Julio. I'm more than ok with the likes of Amendola, Welker, Demaryius, Fitz, or Bowe here. This league is certainly not won at the RB position, but I need two starting RBs in rounds 4-5. There will be more quality available here than in a standard draft so I'm not too worried. At this point, my opponents should be realizing the QB pool is getting ugly fast so I should be able to snap up guys like Daryl Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, or even the dreaded Ryan Matthews (I might be the only fantasy football addict that hasn't been burned yet). Then I'll fill in with upside WR/RB, grab that 3rd QB and a TE if needed.
In order for the prioritization strategy to work, you have to know where in your league it pays the most to have an advantage over your opponents. Then you prioritize your draft from there on down. In my example, it's obviously QB. At every round, don't just consider the best player available, consider which player will give you the edge over your opponents at the roster spot you'd be filling. You'll stray from ADP but you'll be meeting your teams' needs in the order that they matter the most. Taking advantage of subtle opportunities to optimize your team using prioritization of drives can leave you satisfied, feeling safe, looking hot, and ready to fuck...ahem, fucking dominate the rest of your league. When it comes to fantasy, that's how success is defined.
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