Dealing with the Primacy Effect in Fantasy Football...Part 2

Last week I explained why the excitement, the emotion, and all the attention focused on Week 1 of the NFL makes us prone to the Primacy Effect. To recap, we love football and we love our freshly drafted, perfect fantasy teams. We've made our projections and our predictions for the upcoming season and the inaugural week. In addition to a great slate of games, we are secretly craving the intense rewarding feeling of pride when our calls are right. The excitement is conveyed to our brain via the release of a neurotransmitter called norepinephrine which serves to heighten the sensitivity of our neurons, particularly those that are involved in attention, strategy, decision making, and memory formation. Neurons from the emotion processing regions of the brain and those that signal reward are also connected to this key area, the pre-frontal cortex. The perfect storm of watching the games attentively, caring deeply about what happens in each, and being so excited about football after waiting so long has our brains humming along in a beautifully synchronous overdrive mode, allowing memories to form easily. You will have no trouble remembering the Week 1 performances. That is the essence of the Primacy Effect: the first instance of a series is recalled more accurately and more easily than subsequent events.

I write about Cognitive Biases in Fantasy Sports so that you can avoid being misled by your brain, so that you can be aware of the little traps it sets for you, and make the best decisions for your teams. The Primacy Effect is a fact of life, you can't change it, and there's really no reason you should want to. It's finally the first week of football, you're getting stats and information that matters, you're competing on the fantasy field at last! The only danger is that your memory of this weeks' performances will carry undue weight when you go to make decisions down the road. Whom to sit, trade, pick up, or drop? Those decisions, already upon some of us, are the ones that will make or break your season and you don't want to rely too much on Week 1 impressions.
Don't ignore the plethora of good solid analysis and advice this week; it's what you have to go on right now, but just realize that there is as much reason to believe Week 1 is a fluke as to believe it will be indicative of the rest of the season. A few performances that will be susceptible to the Primacy Effect this year:

The first time, ever I saw you play...
Rookies getting their big chances were in the spotlight this past weekend. Montee Ball kicked off the disappointment festival on Thursday going 8 for 24 with one (unproductive) goal line carry in the dominant Broncos win. Zach Sudfeld was simply not part of the NE game plan this week. Teammate Kenbrell Thompkins failed to make the most of his opportunities, finishing 4 for 42 and he was involved in a couple botched plays in the end zone. Eddie Lacy showed some flash against the vaunted SF defense, and was a decent flex play. Tavon Austin was better in PPR (6/41) than standard scoring. Rookie QB EJ Manuel was solid, leaving his owners or distant admirers with a pleasant first impression.  DeAndre Hopkins did exactly what was asked of him in a 5/66 effort Monday night. All of these guys are likely to have up and down weeks. It's what young players typically do.

We are never, ever, ever getting back together...
It should take more than one bad game to truly make the dead to me list, but James Jones, Chris Ivory, and Brandon Pettigrew are at least on some do not call lists. Lamar Miller and David Wilson lost people a lot of matches this weekend with their unbelievably brutal Sunday stat lines. Mike Wallace, TY Hilton, Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, and Eric Decker also failed to cash in on their teams' successes in Week 1. You're probably going to have a little knot in your stomach when you start them going forward as the memory of this dud stays with you.

The first cut is the deepest...
And ouch! The cuts many of the stud rushers made in Week 1 were downright painful. Half of the first round RBs disappointed owners. Since you aren't dropping or sitting your RB1 any time soon, the disappointing days by Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, TRich, Lynch, Ridley, and MJD just have to be borne with gritted teeth. There are better weeks ahead.

It feels like the first time...
We've seen it before from most of these guys, but damn, it's so nice. Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Anquan Boldin, Philip Rivers, LeSean McCoy, Julius Thomas, Leonard Hankerson, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Vernon Davis, Victor Cruz, Jared Cook, and Joique Bell may have just played their best games of the year. Or they could stay on pace for MVP seasons. Either way, the guys with outstanding Week 1 games tend to get our trust and high expectations for the year.

So call me, maybe
The Primacy Effect makes sure that this awesome, long awaited weekend of football sets the tone for the rest of the season. When you face a decision about a player in the coming weeks, you'll reflect first on this performance. Being aware of the Primacy Effect can temper its effects a little bit, and prevent you from weighting your decisions too heavily on this one game. You drafted a perfect team, remember? You had a good reason for drafting who you drafted. Don't let what happens in Week 1 dictate your strategy for the season.