The Pseudocertainty Effect and Why I Changed a Tire

It was 1:00pm on a perfect, sunny, 78 degree Saturday afternoon. We were halfway to my friend's cottage on Chautauqua Lake, humming along the NYS thruway with another friend following behind. All of a sudden we see smoke followed by the left rear tire of our friend's car rolling off the road. We pull over to check out the damage--not good. Friend 1 asks Friend 2 if he has AAA. He does. Now, I'm kind of a fanatic about sunshine and water, and spending time in both, so I'm starting to panic a little bit. If we wait for AAA to come change the tire, we might make it to the lake in time for this (actual sunset Saturday):

but I'm a pretty big fan of this too (actual beer drank at the lakeside restaurant):

So what to do? I've never changed a tire before. They apparently hadn't either. So waiting for AAA was the safe, reasonable choice. But waiting for AAA was going to SUCK. We'd miss the best part of the day. Keeping these thoughts to myself, I announced that I would just change the tire. They didn't know I had never done it, and it honestly didn't seem too hard. Turns out, it was really easy. We got it done in about 10 minutes and were back on the road. It was a great day at the lake! 

Draft day is the first time you'll be faced with risk-reward vs safe choices in your fantasy leagues this year. The first of many. You probably know how you and at least some of your league mates approach these kinds of choices because risk taking is a major personality trait. Men are greater risk takers than women in general, and risk taking decreases with age. We now understand some of the neurochemical and genetic causes of high risk taking behavior and why it differs among people. For instance, high levels of testosterone in young men helps explain why they typically take more chances than women or older men. There are also inherited variations in a gene that encodes a certain type of dopamine receptor (D4R) that account for about 10% of the risk taking personality. Another gene that encodes a protein that degrades dopamine (monamine oxidase B, or MAO-B) is also a factor, and is found at lower levels in men and risk takers of either gender. You may recall from previous posts that dopamine is the main neurotransmitter that signals reward and pleasure in our brain. Some psychologists argue that risk taking behavior stems from the brain's inability to generate enough pleasure sensations from ordinary behavior. An extra thrill is required in such individuals for the dopamine reward system to be activated and give us pleasure. So having a variant of a gene that affects dopamine levels or the ability to respond to dopamine signals can make one innately more of a risk taker. Other studies show that about 40% of risk taking can be accounted for by interactions with peers (but not immediate family). Therefore, by the time you started playing fantasy sports, your risk taking personality had pretty much been formed by genetic and social interactions.

A lot of excellent fantasy analysis centers around who is safe and who is a risky pick. Injury risk, job security risk, risk of being a good real football player but a lousy player for fantasy, etc. This analysis is crucial to making sense of your draft board when it is supported by solid facts and reasoning. However, the advice of the analyst is probably biased by their own risk taking personality. Ultimately, you have to be comfortable with your team. If you like to play it safe and every fantasy advice/analysis column you read is written by a risk-reward player, following their advice might cause you more than a little anxiety. The reverse is also true, you might read someone who tries to warn you about Arian Foster's calf turned back turned leg off-season/pre-season injury saga while you still think he's worth the risk. He was worth it in 2011, when he faced a similarly rough pre-season, after all. A high risk taker is going to be comfortable drafting Arian Foster #3 overall this weekend. A risk-averse guy is going to recommend taking Rice, McCoy, maybe even Lynch, Morris, and Forte ahead of him this year. Your personality will dictate your draft to a great extent, but there is another element to the draft and to the season that interacts with your guts, and that is context. 

The Pseudocertainty Effect is the phenomenon whereby you make safe, risk-aversive moves and decisions when things are going smoothly (outcomes more certain), but risky choices when things are going poorly (outcomes uncertain). In other words, you either "don't rock the boat" or "go for broke" depending on what's going on for you. When you feel really good about your draft, you're more likely to play it safe. For example, if you start off with generally healthy, solid guys like Martin, CJ?K, Brees, Brady, Marshall, Witten, VJax, Colston, etc. you can keep taking proven commodities on into the late rounds. Maybe it's not the flashiest team, but certainly productive. On the other hand, you might find yourself in a position where you take on a few high risk players early on. Maybe you're compelled by the flow of the draft to take Foster, Amendola, and RG3. The Pseudocertainty Effect will tell you to keep going with the risk reward plays. Go ahead, take a chance on unproven but potential goldmines like Cordarelle Patterson, Jordan Cameron, and Gio Bernard. Desperate times call for desperate measures, right? 

However, there is one more angle to consider. The brain, well the whole body, really, is also set up to achieve homeostasis and balance. Physiological, chemical, hormonal, and ion balances are critical for survival and function, but we strive for behavioral homeostasis too. We pick fights, we apologize. We party hard, we stay in for a week. We pull an all-nighter studying, we sleep for the next two days. We chow down at In-N-Out, then eat salad for a week. We find balance. This homeostatic force might try to sway you to go super safe with your mid-late round picks if you are in situation #2 above. It might cause you to think hard about the Fred Jacksons, DeAngelo Williams', and Anquan Boldins. You know what those guys are. But, come on, you know what those guys are. If your early round risk reward guys flop, this batch is not going to make up the slack. Therefore, in this situation, the balanced approach can shoot you right in the tight end. But at the same time, I'll grant you that if you can go super safe but stud nonetheless in the early rounds, you may want to take a few late fliers. I certainly like to add a chance element of promise and excitement to my teams, and this is a way to achieve balance too.

The Pseudocertainty Effect is officially considered a cognitive bias, meaning it's something that we are predisposed to do without necessarily being conscious of it. But the extent to which any individual person embraces it certainly interacts with their risk taking, thrill seeking personality, or lack of it. If you're willing to take a chance in the face of adversity, you give yourself a better chance to win. If you take needless chances when things are going well, you risk losing what you've gained. It's no surprise that one of the most studied arenas in which cognitive biases affect human behavior is the stock market. When the stock you just bought tons of shares of drops in value, but you had good reason and research to support buying it, the right decision is to buy more. If you bought RG3, buy Vick too. You know what Joe Flacco's gonna do. Joe Flacco's season is going to feel a lot like sitting on the side of the highway waiting for AAA. Take a chance and you could be sipping beers lakeside in the sunshine. In December, when you win your league.